This weekend, we have a 12-fight card at Russia. DraftKings has some strong contests for us to win a lot of money from this week contemplating it’s a smaller card and starts at 10:15am ET. The most important GPP is a $15 buy-in and $25k belongs to 1st place with a total of $100k being paid out. They also have a brand new Qualifier for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they’ll compete for a $50k first place price and that $175k will probably be distributed between all 100 entries that match. I will try to get my 2nd and 3rd chairs this week if at all possible. Those Qualifier only competitions can be actual bankroll suckers so be careful chasing those overly hard. I’ll likely stick to the top GPP this week and then toss 100 or so entries at that $25k prize, then I will probably have a couple shots at the Q. I will also be publishing H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs through the week to get a good quantity of drama into cash games.
With that said, let us get to a few plays I like this week along with my fade of this week:
Money Game play of this week — Roxanne Modafferi — $6,900
I don’t think there are really no money locks this week, so I needed to bring a money plan I use a great deal of the moment, which is punting in cash and accepting a reduction. I don’t think Roxy gets the win here, but she is only $6.9k and I think she gets 15-minutes of actions. I like the flooring that accompanies that and punting along with her cheap cost enables us to fit in more of the higher favorites with our other 5 spots. We do not need 6 wins in cash games, so I don’t think we need to try for this. I like playing cash games if I can lock in 25-35 points at a loss from Roxy in her cheap price I am totally okay with that. I always look for 4 wins in cash and above 350-400 DK points. That’s my goal every week. Let everybody else make the errors and just shoot for a score that may beat 50 percent or more of this area.
GPP drama of this week — Alistair Overeem — $8,900
This really is an all-in fight for GPPs in my view and I enjoy Overeem as one of my top plays of the week. Oleinik took this fight on short notice so that I would be shocked to see this move all 5 rounds. In addition, I believe Overeem will be too fast for him to get takedowns, and Overeem is amounts ahead of him in the game that is spectacular. The sole shooter Oleinik has of winning on the toes is by landing a haymaker and knocking Overeem out. Or, get a standing entry. Other than those two results, Overeem will smoke him on the toes. I also believe Overeem will work his way back into his feet if he’s taken down and the longer Oleinik shoots for takedowns the quicker he will gas out. I like the -175 ITD line which is included with Overeem here and I think he gets a complete in round 2 or 1. That should provide us near 100 DK points or even more, and I need that in lots of my own GPP lineups.
Underdog play of this week — Rafael Fiziev — $7,700
Fiziev is no more the underdog on the betting line (-120) however DraftKings salaries don’t change as soon as they’re released. We receive Fiziev here for $800 cheaper than Mustafaev and he’s favored to get the win. I was really impressed by what I saw from this kid and I agree with the line movement. I really do think he has the win , but it is the DK value that we want to be sure to get exposure to the weekend. I believe he is an excellent play cash games with the present value and that I expect to be obese on him GPPs as well. We have to roster underdogs in our lineups and when we can use a popular as one of those”underdogs” then I am usually on board for that.
Fade of the week — Antonina Shevchenko ($9,300)
Antonina Shevchenko is my fade of this week for her $9.3k price tag. I really do think she has the win here as I mentioned previously, I simply don’t see the way she can pay off that wages with no finish. I don’t see her shooting for any takedowns in this game, and I do not wish to rely on her obtaining knockdown points either. Thus, we’re only likely to be receiving 0.5 points per significant attack, and then the 30-point win bonus if she wins a decision. If this is the case, we would want her to property over 126 sig strikes simply to get more than 10x value. I don’t see that being true and I think she likely scores 80-85 DK points at a decision win. At her wages, that won’t win anyone the big $25k. That is the prize I’m shooting so that’s why she is my fade of this week.
Thank you for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If you would like my own full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and provide my complete DraftKings evaluation, as well as all my pick predictions, then you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium stakes are offered at that link too. I’m 69-41 to get +237.39u (+$23,739) because May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)

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